Technology Predictions
Some of these are probably apocryphal, but making predictions about the limits of technology is really hard:
Some of these are probably apocryphal, but making predictions about the limits of technology is really hard:
Space travel is utter bilge.
- Dr. Richard van der Reit Wooley, space advisor to the British government, 1956
Computers in the future may...perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons.
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
X-rays are a hoax.
- Lord Kelvin, ca. 1900
I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years. Two years later we ourselves made flights. This demonstration of my impotence as a prophet gave me such a shock that ever since I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions.
- Wilbur Wright, 1908
To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth--all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances.
- Lee deForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957
There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.
- Albert Einstein, 1932
That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.
- Admiral William Leahy to President Truman
Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine.
- Ernest Rutherford, 1933
The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it... Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient.
- Dr. Alfred Velpeaum, French surgeon, 1839
Bitcoin is definitely going to be trading at $10,000 or more and in wide use by the end of 2014.
- Many otherwise smart people, November of 2013
Superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous.
- Many otherwise smart people, 2015
(Most of these from: https://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/neverwrk.htm)
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About the Author
Avneesh is the founder of Permissionless Academy, a platform for young adults to build leverage using AI.
He spent a decade inside the K-12 system building Schoolze (now Schoolze Labs) before concluding that meaningful education reforms have to come from outside it. Today he runs six AI-native and legacy products solo, with agents at the core and no traditional team!
He writes about education, agency, and building leverage in the age of AI!
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